Miguel B. Araújo Lab

Predicting the effects of environmental change on biodiversity

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Publications

  1. Anderson, B. J., Akçakaya, H. R. Araújo, M.B., Fordham, D., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R., Thuiller, W., Brook, B. 2009. Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society London B. 276: 1415-1420.
  2. Araújo, M.B. 2009. Climate change and Spatial Conservation Planning. In Spatial Conservation Prioritization: quantitative methods and computational tools (eds. A. Moilanen, H. Possingham, K. Wilson). Oxford University Press.
  3. Araújo, M.B., Alagador, D., Cabeza, M., Lafourcade, B., Nogués Bravo, D. & Thuiller, W. Effects of climate change on European conservation areas. Science. Submitted.
  4. Araújo, M.B., Rozenfeld, R., Rahbek, C. & Marquet, P.A. Using species coexistence networks to assess the impacts of climate change. Ecology Letters. Submitted
  5. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W. & Yoccoz, N.G. Re-opening the climate envelope reveals macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. 106 (16): E45-E46.
  6. Araújo, M.B. & Luoto, M. 2007. The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16, 743-753
  7. Araújo, M.B., Nogués-Bravo, D., Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Haywood, A.M., Valdes, P.J. & Rahbek, C. 2008. Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians. Ecography 31: 8–15 [Choice of Faculty of 1000 Biology]
  8. Baselga, A. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Do community models fail to project community variation effectively? Journal of Biogeography DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02341.x
  9. Baselga, A., Lobo, J.M., Svenning, J-C. & Araújo, M.B. Range circularity reveals non-climatic controls of species distributions. In review
  10. Baselga, A. & Araújo, M.B. 2009. Individualistic vs. community modelling of species distributions under climate change. Ecography 32: 55-65.
  11. Diniz-Filho, J.A., Bini, L.M., Rangel, T.F.L.B., Loyola, R.D., Hof, C., Nogués-Bravo, D. & Araújo, M.B. 2009. Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate changes. Ecography 32: 897-906.
  12. Engler, R., Randin, C.F., Thuiller, W., Dullinger, S., Zimmermann, N.E., Araújo, M.B., Pearman, P.B., Le Lay, G., Piedallu, C., Albert, C.H., Choler, P., Coldea, G., de Lamo, X., Dirnböck, T. Gégout, J-C., Gómez-García1, D., Grytnes, J-A., Heegaard, E., Høistad, F., Nogués-Bravo, D., Normand, S., Puşcaş, M., Sebastià, M-T., Stanisc, A., Theurillat,J-P., Trivedi, M., Vittoz, P. & Guisan. A. Climate change threatens European mountain flora. Nature. Submitted.
  13. Garcia, R. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Planejamento para a conservação em um clima em mudança. Natureza & Conservação. In press
  14. Hickler, T., Fronzek, S., Araújo, M.B., Schweiger, O., Thuiller, W., Sykes, M.T. Projections of species distributions and biodiversity might have been based upon misleading measures of water availability. Global Ecology and Biogeography 18: 304-313.
  15. Hof, C., Brändle, M., Dehling, D.M., Munguía, M., Brandl, R., Araújo, M.B., & Rahbek, C. The effect of habitat type on dispersal and species’ ability to cope with climate change. Biology Letters. In review.
  16. Hof, C., Rahbek, C. & Araújo, M.B. Phylogenetic signals in climatic niche similarity of the world’s amphibians. Ecography. 33: 242-250.
  17. Kujala, H., Cabeza, M., Araújo, M.B. & Thuiller, W. Misleading results from conventional Gap analysis – messages from the warming North. Ecology Letters. In review.
  18. Meier, E.S., Araújo, M.B., Guisan, A., Kienast, F., Pearman, P.B., Svenning, J-C., Thuiller, W. & Zimmermann, N.E. Biotic and climatic variables show little overlap in explaining patterns of the realized niche. In review.
  19. Munguía, M., Rahbek, C. & Araújo, M.B. Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate. In review.
  20. Nogués-Bravo, D., Araújo, M.B., Romdal, T., and Rahbek, C. Scale effects and human impact on the elevational species richness gradients. Nature 453:216-220
  21. Nogués-Bravo, D., Ohlemüller, R., Batra, P. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Climate predictors of Late Quaternary Extinctions. Evolution. doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2010.01009.x
  22. Olofsson, J., Hickler, T., Sykes, M.T., Araújo, M.B., Baletto, E., Berry, P.M., Bonelli, S., Cabeza, M., Dubuis, A., Guisan, A., Kühn, I., Kujala, H., Piper, J., Rounsevell, M., Settele, J. & Thuiller, W. Climate change impacts on European biodiversity – observations and future projections. Biological Reviews. In review
  23. Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R., & Araújo, M.B. 2009. BIOMOD – A platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 32: 369-373
  24. Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Midgley, G.F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F.M., Sykes, M.T. & Zimmermann, N.E. 2008. Predicting climate change impacts on plant diversity: where to go from here? Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 9: 137–152
  25. Williams, P.H., Araújo, M.B. & Rasmont, P. 2007. Predicting vulnerability among species and sites for British bumblebees. Biological Conservation 138: 493-505