Summary

1 minute explanation in Spanish

Our past research signature:

Over the past two decades, MARAUJO LAB’S research has focused on understanding the impact of climate changes on biodiversity and identifying ways to conserve biodiversity in the face of projected climate and societal shifts. Specifically, we delved in three foundational questions

• How have past climate changes impacted biodiversity?
• How will ongoing climate and social changes affect future biodiversity?
• How can biodiversity be conserved considering projected climate and social trajectories?

These questions are pivotal in the international biogeography research agenda. Historically, the first question pertains to historical biogeography, the second to ecological biogeography, and the third to conservation biogeography.

Key insights from the research include:

Past Climate Impact on Biodiversity: Historical biogeography research was primarily conducted in collaboration with teams studying palaeoecology. The approach was to use historical data (like climatic data, fossils, DNA) to validate model projections and understand mechanisms that influenced past species distribution. For instance, they examined the extinction mechanisms of mammoths in Eurasia and the distribution changes in bison in North America. Other studies delved into the impacts of past climate changes on species richness, such as examining climatic impacts on reptiles and amphibians in Europe or using fossil records to understand species’ current climatic preferences.

Predicting Future Biodiversity Shifts: The team pioneered the development of approaches for running distribution models for large numbers of species, combining empirical data and theory, to predict how current and future climate changes might affect biodiversity. We developed hybrid models combining empirical data with theoretical/mechanistic elements, and introduced the concept of ensemble forecasting in ecology, emphasising the need for a more comprehensive approach to explore model uncertainties. On species distribution limits, we also conducted experimental research to measure species’ thermal-physiological boundaries, while revealing the importance of considering thermal limits when making inferences about species distributions. Recently, we led a consensus paper on standards for data and models in species distribution modelling.

Conservation Strategies: Recognising the changing dynamics, we proposed novel conservation frameworks using species distribution models. We introduced species distribution models in systematic conservation planning. We proposed frameworks for using these models in conservation and developed the concept that persistence probability could be a conservation priority “currency”. We were among the first to voice that climate changes might drastically change species’ persistence expectations in protected natural areas. As a result, new methodological approaches were developed to ensure species’ dispersal needs under climate change scenarios and stressed the importance of considering climate change in conservation planning, especially in protected areas.

However, despite the scientific advancements, there’s a noticeable gap in implementing these insights in real-world conservation practices, largely due to financial and socio-political challenges. The vision in MARAUJO LAB underscores the future challenge: it’s not just about advancing science but also ensuring effective knowledge transfer and aligning science with policy decisions.

Our current focus: 

Modelling biodiversity is a complex task due to the intricate interactions and numerous attributes involved. Though theoretical and mechanistic models offer insights, they can be restrictive and not easily transferable across regions or species. A significant challenge in understanding species distribution lies in the incomplete knowledge of biotic interactions. However, studying these interactions through the lens of complex systems theory, especially network theory, might offer a solution.

Some of our recent research has found a connection between climate characteristics and trophic interaction networks. If these findings hold true at various scales or biological organisation, we may be on the verge of a new sub-discipline in biogeography that focuses on biological interactions and the functional attributes of organisms.

The future research direction will delve into integrating complex systems theory into biogeographic theories, aiming to:

• Strengthen the theoretical links between complex systems and biogeography.
• Develop models based on these theoretical foundations.
• Test these models using various methodologies, including spatial-temporal approaches and experimental systems.