Our most recent study published in BMC Public Health offers an analysis of historical and projected heat-related mortality in Portugal’s Alentejo region.
This research provides insights into the growing public health threat posed by heatwaves, particularly in a region characterised by its aging population and limited adaptive infrastructure.
Key Findings and Statistics
1. Historical Trends:
•Over the past few decades, heat-related mortality in the Alentejo region has increased, reaching 5,296 deaths from 1980 to 2015, correlating with rising average summer temperatures.
• During major heatwaves, such as the heatwave of the summer of 2003, mortality rates were found to increase substantially, accounting for 36% of all deaths and representing the majority of seasonal mortality.
2. Future Projections:
• By the 2050s, under a high-emission scenario, heat-related mortality could more than double, affecting thousands of residents.
• Even under a moderate climate change mitigation scenario, heat-related deaths are expected to double by 2100.
3. Demographic Vulnerability:
• Individuals aged 65 and above accounted for 83% of the seasonal deaths, highlighting the urgent need for targeted interventions.
• The study estimates that by 2100, projected mortality rates could be 2 – 4 times higher than today’s levels, potentially exacerbated by Alentejo’s aging population trend if adaptive measures are not implemented.
4. Temperature Thresholds:
The analysis identified a regional critical threshold at a mean temperature of 19°C, beyond which mortality rates increase sharply.
The adverse effects may last up to 5 days, highlighting the cumulative impacts of prolonged heatwaves and the extended consequences beyond exposures to individual hot days.
5. Public Health Implications
The findings emphasize the need for immediate and long-term actions to mitigate the impact of heat on public health in the Alentejo region. These include:
• Early Warning Systems: Developing robust heatwave alert systems tailored to local communities.
• Healthcare Adaptations: Enhancing medical resources and services during heatwave periods, particularly for vulnerable groups.
• Infrastructure Improvements: Introducing cooling centres and urban greening initiatives to reduce heat exposure.
• Policy Interventions: Strengthening climate change adaptation strategies at the national and regional levels to limit future heat-related health risks.
You can access the paper here:
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And listen to one of our “deep dive” podcast-style discussions of our paper here: